20 million face famine. Declassified US plan to help 

Posted on 12 Mar 2017

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While browsing the National Archives, I found a 10 step plan to prevent third world hunger emergencies in declassified US documents. The plan was dated July 9, 1984. More than 30 years later, most of the wealthy world watches while millions are about starve to death. What can we do? Here’s my rough paraphrase of what the plan said to do:

1) Preposition grain in selected third world areas for immediate distribution in a starvation situation.

2) Establish a $50 million presidential fund to permit timely response to food emergencies.

3) Spread out the cost of ocean freight for emergency food shippments in some cases.

4) Pay in-country food distribution costs for the poorest countries.

5) Refine methods for better estimates of Third World emergency food needs.

6) Form an inter-agency emergency food needs work group do you consider how to coordinate with other donor countries and deal with transportation bottlenecks.

7) Increase US and foreign awareness of US food aid programs and the nature of the Third World hunger situation.

8) Form a State Department subcommittee to allow business leaders to explain problems and offer solutions.

9) Continue to study the problem and solutions and recommend new actions.

10) Consider having high-level donor meetings or similar meaures in coordinating with other countries.

What became of this plan? Why are we still at a point where an estimated 20+ million in four countries will starve to death?

This year could be the most deadly from famine in three decades. The lives of more than 20 million people are at risk in four countries. Large areas of South Sudan have already been declared a famine zone. Five years after a famine that claimed about 250,000 lives, Somalia is back on the brink of catastrophe – 6 million people are in need of assistance. Both northeastern Nigeria and Yemen face real and present risks of famine.

An elaborate humanitarian aid system has been created to prevent mass hunger. However, the international community is failing to respond to the deadly threats posed by entirely predictable and eminently avoidable famine.

“Famine” is a technical state defined by the level of acute malnutrition and food shortage. However, people, especially children, are already going hungry, getting sick and dying. The lives of many of these children hang by a nutritional drip. For every life saved, many more do not make it to a clinic.

A precipice is nearing, with relentless predictability. At a conservative estimate, 1.4 million children are at imminent risk of death across the four affected countries over the next year. That number is rising by the day as hunger interacts with killer diseases such as diarrhea, pneumonia, cholera and measles. Every week of delayed action puts more lives on the line.

How did this situation arise? Conflict, drought, poor governance and a shockingly inadequate international response have all played a part.

In South Sudan, famine is concentrated in areas where government forces and rebels have been carrying out brutal ethnic killings.

In Yemen, where half a million children face severe acute malnutrition, conflict and a humanitarian blockade operated by the Saudi-led coalition are pushing a food crisis toward outright famine.

In northern Nigeria, the military is regaining territory from Boko Haram and uncovering shocking levels of malnutrition. In each case, the violence is destroying livelihoods and displacing the farmers on which food production depends.

The crisis in the Horn of Africa bears all the hallmarks of the famine declared in 2011. The region is in its third year of drought, with Somalia, southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya the worst affected. The familiar pattern of crop failure, livestock deaths and rising food prices has exposed pastoralists and farmers to acute risks and left 12.8 million people in need of assistance.

All of this could have been predicted. The warning signs were clearly visible months ago. However, the international community has prevaricated to the point of inertia. UN agencies that should have been working together have failed to coordinate their response, leading to fragmentation on the ground.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres deserves credit for sounding a loud – if belated – alarm bell. His agencies must now work together to deliver an effective response.

One consequence is a gap in financing. The UN estimates that US$5.6 billion is needed to address urgent needs. Most of that money was needed yesterday. However, less than 2 percent is in the financial pipeline. Aid donors have got into the bad habit of recycling old aid pledges as new money and failing to set clear timelines for delivery.

As the images of hunger multiply, there will be calls for action, nongovernmental organizations will mount emergency appeals and there will be more pledging conferences. 
However, surely this is the time for the major aid donors, the G7, G20 and the World Bank to convene a financing summit that provides front-loaded support, delivered through a properly coordinated system of UN agencies and nongovernmental organizations.

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Long term solution: Invest in expanding the solar energy plants near the Sahara desert. Use the new energy to desalinate and decontaminate ocean water. Build green houses and use the water to grow food. Get everyone working together. Build schools and educate people. With a new healthy, educated, population, create factories to build robots to clean up for Kushima and the rest of our trash in the world.

That’s my recommendation for a long-term solution.