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How to Witness a Highly Improbable Event

The logic of viewing unlikely events as evidence that this is all a simulation may be flawed. Here’s why: Imagine the number of possible things that happen every day in our world. It is beyond astronomically huge. With such a large set of possible happenings, some astonishingly improbable events will certainly occur. We just don’t know what they will be until after they happen. Does this help explain how someone could be struck by lightning seven times? It doesn’t feel to me like it does, but I concede that it may.


Do you want to witness an “improbable” event right now in your very own home?

Take a standard deck of 52 cards, shuffle it well and spread the cards in a line. Look at them well. Assuming an ideally random shuffle, the probability of a card sequence in this exact order is…

1 in 80658175170943878571660636856403766975289505440883277824000000000000

Really. And yet despite this very low probability, you just got that sequence. Which may be mind-blowing if you haven’t studied statistics or combinatorics. Of course, this is because the probability that is given to you is ex ante and when you are reading the sequence of the cards after you shuffle them, you are simply validating what you see. The ex post probability of getting that particular sequence is always 100%.


We might still be living in a simulation, but improbable events need not be evidence of the Matrix. Understanding this does not in the least lessen my interest in strange events which happen every day, so stay tuned for more.


About Xeno

E pluribus unum.


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